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Strong Conservative lead in St. Albert-Edmonton: federal vote projection

The St. Albert-Edmonton district has an area of 104 square kilometres and a population of 121,313, based on 2016 census data. There are 93,763 electors on the preliminary federal election lists, according to data from Elections Canada.
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Data from 338 Canada shows a large Conservative lead in St. Albert-Edmonton projections.

St. Albert residents will likely see a Conservative Party of Canada member representing them after the Sept. 20 election, according to data from a federal vote projection.

The Sept. 2 projection from 338 Canada shows Conservative incumbent, Michael Cooper, is predicted to garner around 54.1 per cent of the vote with a confidence interval of 7.2 per cent.

Cooper won the 2019 election with the support of 39,506 voters out of the 65,091 valid ballots cast or 60.7 per cent of the vote, according to data from Elections Canada.

NDP candidate Kathleen Mpulubusi is predicted, as of Sept. 2, to see a gain of nearly eight per cent in votes this election.

The 2019 election saw the party come in third, with 15.2 per cent of the vote, with 9,895 people voting for the NDP. In this election, 338 Canada is projecting the NDP will come in second with 22.3 per cent of the vote, with a confidence interval of 5.4 per cent.

The Liberal Party of Canada, represented locally by Greg Springate, is projected to lose seats this election, falling well behind the NDP with a predicted 15 per cent of the vote, with a confidence interval of 4.5 per cent.

The Liberals came in second during the 2019 election, with 19.2 per cent of the vote, which was 12,477 votes of the 65,091 eligible ballots.

People’s Party of Canada candidate Brigitte Cecelia is expected, according to Sept. 2, 338 Canada data, to receive 3.8 per cent of the vote, with a confidence interval of three per cent. The 2019 election saw the People's Party receive 1,268 ballots in their favour at 1.9 per cent of the vote.

The St. Albert-Edmonton district has an area of 104 square kilometres and a population of 121,313, based on 2016 census data. There are 93,763 electors on the preliminary elections lists, according to data from Elections Canada. The median household income, as reported by 338 Canada, is $111,469 which gives the district a rank of eight out of the 338 electoral districts.

Of Alberta’s 34 federal districts, 31.1 federal seats are predicted to go to the Conservatives, with a confidence interval of 3.6. The Liberals are predicted to take 1.5 federal seats, with a confidence interval of 3.1. The NDP is predicted to take 1.4 of the federal seats, with a confidence interval of 1.1.

Data from 338 Canada shows Edmonton Strathcona is NDP safe territory, with incumbent Heather McPherson.

Edmonton Griesbach is predicted to be a toss-up between NDP Blake Desjarlais and incumbent Conservative member Kerry Diotte, with Diotte currently leading.

Edmonton Centre is also being projected as a toss-up between current Conservative MP James Cumming and Liberal candidate Randy Boissonault, who currently leads.

The final toss-up is in the district of Edmonton Mill Woods, with Conservative incumbent Tim Uppal in the lead and Liberal candidate Ben Henderson close behind.

Federally the Conservatives are in the lead, with a projection of 33.8 per cent of the vote ahead of the Liberals' 31 per cent and the NDP’s 20.5 per cent, as per 338 Canada’s Sept. 2 update.

Other polls have similar projections.

In response to the question, “If elections were held today, for which political party would you most likely vote?” posed by Leger/The Canadian Press between Aug. 27 to 30, 34 per cent of the 1,723 decided Canadian voters said they would vote for the Conservatives, while 30 per cent said the Liberals, 24 per cent said the NDP, and three per cent said the People's Party.

An Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News between Aug. 27 to 30 with the same question posed to decided voters saw Conservatives receive 32 per cent of the national vote, with Liberals receiving 31 per cent, the NDP receiving 23 per cent, and the People’s Party receiving one per cent.

The Angus Reid Institute is also showing the Conservative Party trending upwards in projections, with 33 per cent of decided and leaning voters voting Conservative, 31 per cent of the votes going to the Liberals, 21 per cent to the NDP, with no data available specifically for the People's Party.