The 82nd Academy Awards presentation on March 7 is still three months away, but many are sitting on pins and needles waiting for co-hosts Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin to yuk it up for Hollywood’s best and brightest (and probably a few of the worst and dullest who crash the party too). For those who don’t love sports but like analogies: the Oscar telecast is the equivalent of the Super Bowl.
Speaking of sports, this year’s telecast is actually being held later than it has been in the last few years to accommodate the Olympics that run until Feb. 28.
The 5,777 ballots have been mailed out and the nominations don’t even get announced until Groundhog Day, but that isn’t going to stop rampant guessing for the nominees and even calling a few winners now. Since early speculation on who will make the short list is premature, the nominees for both the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards and good judgment will provide some insight. For instance, Adam Sandler will never even get close to an Oscar unless he works with Paul Thomas Anderson again. While his performance in Punch Drunk Love wasn’t great, it had promise and a great director.
Although the Oscars separate the original screenwriters from the adapted ones, they deserve discussion in the same breath. There has been a lot of talk lately about The Hurt Locker, which will likely get more recognition in the directing area with maybe some acting trophies too. Maybe a Best Picture nod. Then again Precious is also hot with buzz. District 9 looked like it would be an internment camp escape caper with immigrant aliens but it turned out to have nuance and political commentary that often gets high praise. Quentin Tarantino has a way of getting attention, but Inglourious Basterds doesn’t really deserve an Oscar, unless the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) invents one for revisionist history/revenge fantasy. Lately, the awards have been going out to films that aren’t feel-good but otherwise still satisfying because they follow basic three-act structure. Original screenplay winners can be more esoteric and have a less formal structure but they still have to be really good to work and receive critical acclaim. Good bets are Geoffrey Fletcher for his adapted Precious and Neill Blomkamp for his original District 9.
As for the performers, there’s no sense venturing any thoughts or guesses for the supporting actor and actress categories. The rules surrounding them always seemed dodgy and occasionally nonsensical.
Best Actor is more straightforward but tricky. Jeff Bridges has been nominated four times already and never won. Lately he has been into kooky parts (like training psychic soldiers in The Men Who Stare at Goats) but his whiskey-soaked turn as a country singer in Crazy Heart might be all it takes to finally get him up on stage. AMPAS loves redemption stories about artists. George Clooney and Brad Pitt might get nominated for their respective turns in Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds, but they shouldn’t be — they weren’t really acting. Colin Firth already got the acting prize at the Venice Film Festival for his immersive work in A Single Man but he just doesn’t have the long-standing recognition that usually culminates in an Oscar. All of the other strong contenders are big names — Morgan Freeman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Robert Downey, Jr. — but this will be the year for an out-of-left-field champion. Look for Jeremy Renner of The Hurt Locker to be thanking his mom and dad on March 7. If it isn’t him then it’ll be Michael Stuhlbarg for A Serious Man.
There are some pretty big names in the Best Actress category, but most of can be ruled out. Sandra Bullock won’t even get on the ballot for The Blind Side or any other work unless she acts in a Paul Haggis movie again. Meryl Streep is too simple a choice — she could win an Oscar for eating porridge, let alone her clever, complex work in both It’s Complicated and Julie & Julia. The ladies of the just-released Nine would have received more acclaim if the movie didn’t sink immediately upon launching last weekend. This award will likely go to another British actress but not Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria or Helen Mirren for The Last Station. It will likely be Carey Mulligan for An Education. She had a great year with other projects like Public Enemies and Brothers. She has more going for her than what appears to be the odds-on favourite — Gabourey Sidibe for Precious.
Best Director prize seems like an easy lock for Kathryn Bigelow of The Hurt Locker over a whole cast of worthy competitors. She’s in a field that could include Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds, Clint Eastwood for Invictus, Jason Reitman for Up in the Air and James Cameron for Avatar. It’s pretty apparent Rob Marshall won’t make the cut for Nine. Lone Scherfig came up strong with An Education starring Mulligan and penned by the populist Nick Hornby. Blomkamp rocked a lot of people’s boats with District 9 but the Academy is always reluctant to reward either comedy or science fiction movies. Bigelow would be the first woman ever to win the award. That would be a huge vindication for her, especially if she’s up against ex-husband Cameron.
And then there’s Best Picture, the icing on the cinematic cake. What usually gets the prize is either the biggest, most overblown epic or the best crafted but smaller profile nuanced drama with a seasoned veteran at the helm. That means Up in the Air can be ruled out. Nine is out because Marshall already won for Chicago and that ship won’t sail twice. That’s more bad news for the Weinstein Company, which hasn’t hit gold since Harvey and Bob lost Miramax to Disney four years ago. They might get lucky with A Single Man but it’s doubtful. Nobody has even hinted at Public Enemies because it came out in the summer. It was easily one of the top five of the year and credit should be given to Michael Mann, Ronan Bennett, Johnny Depp and Marion Cotillard. Likewise Where the Wild Things Are was brilliant, low tech and emotionally profound but not big in the way that often gets noticed, and it’s hard to credit actors who wear furry monster suits. Inglourious Basterds just isn’t Tarantino at his best so that’s a scratch too. And Precious, which probably should win, won’t because Hollywood likes to reward those who work hard over years and have a reputation for consistent quality. This will be a photo finish between thoughtful war movie The Hurt Locker and smart enough, big-budget Avatar. Cameron will lose out again because he’s already won his Oscar and sci-fi flicks don’t fly at the Kodak Theatre.
As an added bonus, it’s time to seriously start talking about animated features. There seem to be more new ones every year from upstart production studios. While many are good enough for kids and adults alike to enjoy, a very few actually care about their stories or their actors. Voice acting and motion capture acting are two aspects of modern filmmaking that should get their own Oscar categories soon.
Fantastic Mr. Fox and Coraline were the two animated standouts, but it’s important to note that neither was perfectly suited for a younger audience. There were some mature themes and scenes in both that implied they were only intended for adults.
There are so many other fine films but so few awards. We’ll just see what happens on March 7.
