An interesting study highlighted in the Nov. 25 Gazette purports to show that more people drown in the fall and spring when the ice is thin. Who knew? Sixteen (!) research people collaborated in this study by Sharma et al to come to the above conclusion.
But ... let's look at the study itself. First, I have to give the authors credit for disclosing the data and computer programs used. It is also very helpful to see the error ranges illustrated. Under the "implications" heading in the article is the following statement: ... not able to confirm if drowning deaths had increased over time due to global "warming" (or heating as Gazette reporter Kevin Ma calls it). In other words, the article headline is a bit of a red herring.
Then I thought: let's count to "could," "may be," etc. in the study using my fingers. Not surprisingly, I needed my toes as well. It was also a bit odd that of the 10 countries listed in the study, only six countries were used in some calculations. I really do not understand "Ph.d"-type thinking.
Aside from the fact that no (risk) engineer has yet proven that global warming is due to Co2, (computer models are not proof of anything), this whole study basically says to check the ice before going on it. Good advice.
Joe Prins, St. Albert