A federal election is all but certain now that federal opposition parties have vowed to vote down Tuesday's budget.
Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tabled his sixth budget in the House of Commons Tuesday. "Canada is emerging from the global recession as one of the world's top performing advanced economies," he said in the House, with some 480,000 new jobs created since 2009.
The budget featured about $2.3 billion in new measures, including a hiring credit for small business owners, a one-year revival of the ecoENERGY Retrofit for Homes program and top-up cash for seniors receiving the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS).
Parliament faces a choice between opportunism and strengthening financial security, Flaherty said.
"By choosing to act in the best interests of our country, we can ensure a bright future for our children and grandchildren."
Within half an hour, opposition leaders Michael Ignatieff, Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton all announced they would not support the budget.
That means the government will likely fall when the budget comes to a vote next week, said Edmonton-St. Albert member of Parliament Brent Rathgeber, possibly even sooner if opposition parties carry out a promise to table a non-confidence motion on ethics this Friday.
"The opposition parties are going to have to explain to St. Albertans, Albertans and Canadians why they were opposed to this supplement to the Guaranteed Income Supplement [for seniors]," he said, citing one of the new measures in the budget.
Small breaks all round
The proposed Hiring Credit for Small Business would give businesses a one-time $1,000 credit to offset higher Employment Insurance premiums they incur if they hire more workers this year, according to budget documents. The credit would be available to some 525,000 employers and cost about $165 million over the next two years.
That's definitely good news, said Ivan Mayer, president of the Riel Business Park Association. While big industry is laying off workers out east, small businesses are keeping the economy running. "Small business is running the country right now, so we need some breaks."
The budget proposes $400 million for the home energy retrofit program, a popular initiative the Conservatives have cancelled twice before.
It was most recently cancelled as of last year, said Leigh Bond, president of St. Albert's Threshold Energies Corp., who wasn't pleased to see it brought back. "Oh damn," he said, when told of the news.
Subsidy programs like this lose effectiveness since they often pay for steps people were already planning to do, he said. "Why should I get a $500 rebate for something I have to do anyway?"
The government would get more greenhouse gas reductions for its buck if it simply raised building standards. "It'll make some difference, but whether it'll make $400 million of difference, I kind of doubt it."
The poorest one-third of seniors getting GIS payments will get a top-up payment of $600 to $840 a year, according to budget documents, at a cost of $300 million a year. A proposed Family Caregiver Tax Credit would give people caring for infirm relatives a 15 per cent non-refundable credit on an amount of $2,000 starting in 2012. Volunteer firefighters would get a similar credit on an amount of $3,000, but would have to give up their current exemption on honoraria for their services to claim it.
Not likely to pass
The budget isn't likely to pass when it comes to a vote, Rathgeber said, given that all three opposition parties are against it. The earliest budget vote would be next week. If the government loses it, it will have to call an election.
The federal Liberals have said they would table a non-confidence motion as early as Friday criticizing the government's integrity and ethics. That measure could also trigger an election if passed.
Rathgeber said he's ready to run and is prepared to challenge the Conservative's opponents if the opposition votes down this budget. "Why are they against a $3,000 tax credit for volunteer firefighters?"
The budget is available at www.budget.gc.ca.
