It's too early to tell how many voters will show up on election day to cast a ballot, says a political scientist. “It's very difficult to predict voter turnout,” said Chaldeans Mensah, an associate professor of political science at MacEwan University.
It's too early to tell how many voters will show up on election day to cast a ballot, says a political scientist.
“It's very difficult to predict voter turnout,” said Chaldeans Mensah, an associate professor of political science at MacEwan University.
It might be difficult, but about half a dozen people surveyed at St. Albert Place on Thursday afternoon all said they would vote.
From students to seniors to young parents, they all planned on going to the polls on election day.
Asked about the early election call – Alberta's fixed election date legislation had set the date for spring 2016 – only a couple of people were concerned about the schedule change.
Denis Charron, a young St. Albert father, did question the motivation around the early writ drop.
“It's convenient for (Jim) Prentice to do it while the other parties are floundering,” Charron said.
Zach Laforce, a young man from Westlock, said something similar.
“I don't know if the other parties are really ready for it,” Laforce said, though he said an early election call wouldn't change his vote.
Charron might be questioning the reasons for an early vote, but he did say if it helps motivate young generations to get out and vote, that'd be a positive result.
Vanessa McLean said the call wouldn't change how she votes, and all she really cares about is the provincial debt being kept down.
“It doesn't make any difference to me,” she said of the switch to a 2015 election.
Levi Loyer was similarly ambivalent about the date swap.
“I don't really care,” he said, though he did say he'd vote.
So if people aren't mad about the early election call, what will get them out to the polls?
Mensah said the competitiveness of a specific election makes a difference. In 2012, voter turnout across the province jumped up to 54 per cent after hitting a historic low in 2008 of 40 per cent.
That was bumped up thanks to the perceived tight race between the Wildrose Party and Progressive Conservatives. Mensah said progressive voters were motivated to cast ballots to keep the Wildrose Party from forming government.
In both St. Albert ridings, the turnout in 2012 was higher than the provincial average. In the St. Albert constituency, 60 per cent of voters went to the polls, and in Spruce Grove-St. Albert 56.5 per cent did.
In 2008 in the St. Albert riding, only 44.74 per cent came out.
But will the upward trend of 2012 continue on May 5, or will the previous downward trends return?
“The campaign has just started, and campaigns can make a difference. If people feel it's a foregone conclusion that we're going to have one of these big majorities from the PCs, I think that is going to really depress voter turnout. But if there's a sense as the campaign continues that there's a real contest among the parties … it can create a momentum,” Mensah said.
If momentum is generated, it could encourage marginal voters to head to the polls.
Marginal voters can include many youth who don't vote.
Mensah said an Elections Alberta campaign to get young people to the polls is a step in the right direction, but the parties should follow suit by putting youth issues like post-secondary funding, employment opportunities and the environment front and centre and attend forums where the younger generations will have more chances to speak.
“I think if we see that trend of interest in the issues and concerns of the young people, I think that will boost participation,” Mensah said.
Elections Alberta launched its campaign meant to motivate youth and other voters this week.
“We're trying to reach out to those electors who don't traditionally engage in the voting process and would choose not to vote,” said Drew Westwater, director of election operations and communications for Elections Alberta.
To that end, they've partnered with the groups Student Vote and Apathy is Boring to reach youth.
They're also targeting other Alberta voters with advertising and initiatives like a social media hashtag, “Choose Your Alberta.”
Asked about the similarity to the PC campaign slogan, “Choose Alberta's Future,” Westwater said they didn't know about the PC slogan until Tuesday when the writ was dropped – and the campaign for Elections Alberta was already planned.
Ultimately, to get voter participation up, people need to feel that their vote can make a difference, Mensah said. That can be tough under the current electoral system.
“I think fundamentally there has to be electoral reform where every vote counts,” Mensah said.
That reform won't come in this election, so Mensah said that if the outcome of the election isn't clear close to election day, there could be a last minute rush to the polls.
