Premier Jason Kenney is faced with a leadership confidence vote in April at the spring 2022 UCP convention, a major test of his unity message that helped him become party leader in October 2017. That unity message must seem like a lifetime ago for someone who was successful in bringing provincial conservative factions together following years of divisive right-wing politics. Re-enter Brian Jean and now new divisions are on the horizon.
Just when one would think the party divisions would mostly be along ideological lines of the right and the far right, Jean appears to have added to that division by playing a race and nationality card when he referred to his Wood Buffalo nomination opponent as “a Nigerian economist who lives in Fort McMurray.” Divisions are continuing and they are very transparent.
Kenney appears to have determined that divisions are actually an important element of his brand, contrary to his unity message portrayed while uniting the right. Most of these party divisions are now transparent and such transparency is good for democracy.
Kenney’s battles with Ottawa, his unwillingness to work closely with the NDP during the pandemic crisis, and his acceptance of division within his own party are all important for him to help deepen his brand. Time will tell if being openly divisive will actually result in him retaining his leadership in 2022 or his premiership in 2023. All these divisions are out in the open, allowing Albertans to assess the government, the UCP party, and the premier.
The UCP party itself has also been riddled with internal division, and double standards do exist, including MLA travel during the pandemic, non-vaccination by UCP caucus members, MLA resignations, and even the premier personally role-modeling drinking while on the job in a rooftop meeting (others drinking in their offices). Also, while it is not unprecedented, the number of UCP MLAs willing to criticize their leader and remaining in caucus is peculiar. At the same time, some who are openly critical have been removed. It is admirable that most of this criticism is open and transparent.
With his leadership teetering, there may be one divisive decision he could make that would actually unify his party. Consider if he were to make a premier-like decision and drop all pandemic-related restrictions. With vaccination percentages continuing to rise and youth vaccinations taking a foothold, we may very well see an announcement of COVID restrictions ending prior to the UCP convention. It may be divisive, but it is on brand and transparent.
Why might divisiveness save his leadership? Much of what Premier Kenney says and does is divisive and easily reported. Albertans know what they are getting. It is not hidden; it is talked about. Many agree with him, and a new, divisive, restrictions-ending decision may very well be the transparent decision the majority of Albertans will applaud.
With politics in North America split along party, racial, religious, gender, COVID, and ideological lines, 2022 will see division continue within the UCP of Alberta.
We should not underestimate the power of transparency that may trump divisiveness. It may even result in voter forgiveness — even for Premier Kenney.
Nolan Crouse is a former St. Albert mayor.
