When Russia invaded Ukraine, many people thought Russia would easily win. They were surprised by Ukraine’s resistance and the Russian offensive’s breakdown. Now, some commentators are wondering if Ukraine could win, treating the idea as if it was a shock. History shows that these kinds of wars aren’t a foregone conclusion, though. Sometimes the side that looks weaker on paper still wins because of any number of factors.
The United States is a classic example. Although the American colonists were outgunned by the British Empire, France and Spain helped the colonists with their own troops and large amounts of material aid. That help, along with British incompetence, sealed the Americans’ victory.
When Italy tried to colonize Ethiopia in the 1890s, the Ethiopians won in part because they knew the terrain and acquired better weapons than the Italians. They were also fighting to keep their homeland free from colonialism. The Italian troops were low-morale conscripts fighting with outdated weapons. Ethiopia winning the Battle of Adwa shocked Italy so much that it lost any desire to keep fighting.
Russia lost its war with Japan in 1905-06 because it underestimated the Japanese. It didn’t realize how much Japan had modernized its army and tactics. Russia had more resources than Japan, but Japanese victories like the Battle of Tsushima humiliated Russia so much that it started peace talks even when it could have kept fighting.
This was also how the Communist regime in Vietnam defeated the United States and eventually conquered the whole country. Despite the amount of resources the U.S. poured into fighting the war, public opinion turned against it as American losses kept piling up and there didn’t seem to be any way for the U.S. to win. The costs of the war became more than Americans were willing to put up with.
Angola, Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique won their independence from Portugal the same way. The Portuguese public became sick of how many resources their government poured into the conflict, the economic sanctions other countries placed on Portugal and the years of endless conflict, which lasted from 1961 to 1974. They finally overthrew their government and forced an end to the conflict.
We can see parallels between these past conflicts and the current Ukrainian-Russian war. Other parts of the world are providing Ukraine with money and weapons to help it fight, while reports are coming out of Russian vehicles breaking down from a lack of maintenance. Much of the rest of the world has also placed heavy economic sanctions on Russia, weakening its ability to keep fighting. There are also reports of Russian conscripts suffering from low morale, shocked at how the Ukrainians are reacting to their arrival. The Russian government has also had to crack down on angry protests by their citizens.
Given all this, the real surprise wouldn’t be if Ukraine won the war, but if Russia did. When he started this war, Vladimir Putin probably thought he’d be like Josef Stalin in the Second World War.
Instead, he’s been more like Tsar Nicholas II in the First World War.
Jared Milne is a St. Albert resident with a passion for Canadian history and politics.
