Premier Ed Stelmach could be looking at a flood of defections from caucus when he shuffles his cabinet in a week’s time, courtesy of the trickle set in motion Monday when two MLAs jumped ship to the Wildrose Alliance Party. There is little Stelmach can do to stop it, save for stepping down.
Monday’s announcement that Progressive Conservative MLAs Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth, both of whom serve ridings in the Calgary area, had crossed the floor to the fledgling right-of-centre party is a historic moment — the first time in 38 years of provincial rule that a Tory MLA, let alone two, have crossed the floor. If Anderson’s reasoning Monday is as altruistic as he claims, he made the switch because Stelmach and his cabinet have restricted how much he and other MLAs can help their constituents. Of course, both Anderson and Forsyth can likely see the writing on the wall for the Tories as well, given new polling numbers that show Stelmach’s popularity is plunging fast.
Crossing the floor at any level of government in Canada is tantamount to political suicide — few who abandon one party for another survive another election. Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle Smith pointed out Monday while introducing Anderson and Forsyth that both were abandoning large paycheques, campaign funds and volunteer help — none of which can be easily replaced as the fledgling party continues to build its party base. Granted, the move now gives the Wildrose three MLAs, which could be enough for official party status and one more member than the has-been NDP.
Stelmach’s office might say they aren’t surprised and knew the move was coming, but there is more at stake in the coming week than losing two members. An Angus Reid poll conducted in mid-December shows the premier’s approval rating has plummeted to a dismal 14 per cent. If an election were held today, the Wildrose Alliance, with 39 per cent support in the poll, would form a government, while the Tories would be battling with the Liberals for opposition status at 25 per cent each.
Already there are rumours of Tory members putting out leadership feelers as Stelmach continues to bumble his way through tough economic times, poor health care management and looming cuts to education and health care. If the premier’s approval rating was higher, then this defection would be little more than a bump in the road. But with few Albertans believing Stelmach is the best leader for the province, the power of his office carries little clout, meaning more MLAs might start looking across the floor to a rosier future. Those numbers could be buoyed next Monday when Stelmach is expected to shuffle his cabinet. The losers, instead of moping in private, simply might abandon the party altogether.
Stelmach has no reason to call an election before 2012, but his future as premier is very much in doubt. With the surging popularity of the Wildrose and his own numbers tanking, it is unlikely the premier will be handling the reins when the next election comes around. His actions and decisions in the coming year will either result in more disenfranchisement among Alberta voters or, in the more unlikely scenario, reverse his sliding fortunes.
